Lower than expected inflation data sparks an instant rally in crypto, while the U.S. dollar pays the price.
Bitcoin (BTC) regained $24,000 but failed to hit new multi-month highs on Aug. 10 as United States inflation appeared to be slowing.
CPI cuts risk assets much-needed slack
While managing $24,179 on Bitstamp, BTC/USD nonetheless did not attract enough momentum to challenge levels from the day prior.
Nonetheless, relief among traders was palpable, as declining inflation should signal to the Federal Reserve that less aggressive interest rate hikes are necessary going forward. This, in turn, should reduce pressure on risk assets, including crypto.
Year-on-year CPI inflation came in at 8.5%, 0.2% below expectations, while month-on-month, the figure was unchanged from June.
Over to you Sir Powell, you know what to do. pic.twitter.com/qwMbdtriNm— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) August 10, 2022
"Markets now have a pretty clear run until regional Fed surveys in a weeks or so. I expect those to be significantly weaker," Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, reacted.
"Peak inflation gives way to peak growth fear. I do think markets will react positively to weak growth, not negatively, broadly speaking."
Blockware lead insights analyst, William Clemente, was more cautious, describing the rally in risk assets as continuing "short term" on the back of the print.
Faith in the Fed cooling its aggressive rate hike cycle meanwhile played out almost immediately, with bets of a 75-basis-point hike in September starkly reduced in favor of 50 basis points.
"Jul CPI is bullish especially for tech stocks," markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz added.
Dollar dives in step as Ethereum beats multi-month best
Celebrating the CPI event more than Bitcoin, meanwhile, was Ether (ETH), which capitalized on the mood to post its highest levels since June 7.
At $1,847, ETH/USD gained 11.5% on the day, fueling hopes that the crypto rally could be more than a fakeout.
"Some of you forget that the market can pump and it actually not be a trap. Especially if fundamentally driven," trader and commentator Josh Rager tweeted.
A clear loser on the day, however, was the U.S. dollar, which extended a downtrend in place since mid-July on the CPI print.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) lost 1.3%, now targeting its 100-day moving average, according to popular trader Pierre.
$DXY - D1— Bierre (@pierre_crypt0) August 10, 2022
Hard to make it clearer/cleaner, I guess simple TA works too on US ponzi.
Until D1 trend reclaimed, I guess D1 100 MA @ 103-104 doable but what do I know. https://t.co/FeGFYBFcdi pic.twitter.com/lhQEcbIxTK
Sven Henrich, founder of analytics firm NorthmanTrader, described DXY as "getting crushed."
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