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TA: Bitcoin Remains At Risk, Why BTC Could Nosedive Below $38K

Bitcoin price struggled to recover above $40,000 and extended its decline against the US Dollar. BTC could dive below $38,500 if it continues to stay below $40,000.



  • Bitcoin extended its decline below the $40,000 and $39,200 support levels.

  • The price is now trading well below $40,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $39,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

  • The pair must break $39,250 and $40,000 to start a fresh increase in the near term.


Bitcoin Price is Struggling

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from well above $42,000 level. BTC broke the key $40,500 support level to move into a short-term bearish zone.


The price even settled below the $40,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It even broke the $39,200 support zone and traded as low as $38,711. The price is now consolidating gains above the $38,700 level.


An initial resistance is near the $39,250 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $39,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first major resistance is near the $39,600 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $42,630 swing high to $38,711 low.



Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The main resistance is now forming near the $40,500 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $42,630 swing high to $38,711 low.


If there is an upside break above the trend line and then $40,000, bitcoin could rise towards $40,500. The next major resistance on the upside is near the $41,200 zone.


More Losses in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to climb above the $39,250 and $40,500 resistance levels, it could continue to move down. An initial support on the downside is near the $38,700 level.


The first major support is now near the $38,500 zone. A clear downside break below the $38,500 support might encourage the bears for more losses. The next major support is near the $37,000 zone.


Technical indicators:


Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.


Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well below the 50 level.


Major Support Levels – $38,500, followed by $37,000.


Major Resistance Levels – $39,250, $40,000 and $40,500.